Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED)

Significant National Weather:

West:
A Pacific storm system is forecast to bring winter weather to the Rockies and Great Plains beginning later today and extending through the week. Tonight moderate amounts of snow, as much as 6-12 inches, will impact portions of Utah, western Wyoming and the central Colorado mountains. Strong winds east of Denver, over the Plains, could cause significant blowing and drifting snow with blizzard conditions possible on Friday.

Midwest:
Warm temperatures are forecast to continue for the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys, extending into the North Central U.S. into Saturday. Some rain and thunderstorms will move into portions of Texas, Oklahoma and eastern Kansas late in the afternoon; heavier rain and a few thunderstorms will develop tonight. A strong storm developing over the Plains will bring the threat of locally heavy snowfall across northwestern Kansas and Nebraska tonight through early Saturday. Along with the snow some heavy rain and even a few severe thunderstorms will threaten portions of Kansas tonight and Friday.

South:
A few isolated showers and storms are possible along the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to Texas. Precipitation will likely exit the coast of North Carolina early in the day while the remainder of the Southeast is expected to remain dry. February temperatures are expected to remain mild across the Southern Plains. Red Flag warnings remain in effect across portions of southern New Mexico and south west Texas.

Northeast:
Rain showers will bring slight moisture to the Mid Atlantic states as a storm slowly moves off the coast; mostly cloudy and drier weather will prevail by the afternoon. Extremely warm conditions will come to an end across the Northeast as cooler air begins to arrive from Canada. Temperatures will reach into the teens and 20s across northern New England and northern New York; milder temperatures will extend from southern New England through the Mid-Atlantic States.

Space Weather:

No space weather storms were observed over the past 24 hours. No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.

Heightened Activity at Cleveland Volcano, Alaska:

Renewed eruptive activity of the Cleveland Volcano has been observed by satellite, prompting the Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) to elevate the Aviation Color Code from Yellow to Orange (Alert Level: Watch). Orange is the second highest warning level in the four-color alert system, and indicates that the Cleveland Volcano is exhibiting ?heightened or escalating unrest with increased potential of eruption?. The Cleveland Volcano is located along the east central Aleutians, about 940 miles southwest of Anchorage, Alaska.

As of Monday, January 30, a new lava dome approximately 130 feet in diameter was observed in the summit crater. No ash emissions or explosive activity have been observed; however, it is possible for intermittent, sudden explosions of blocks and ash to occur at any time, and ash clouds exceeding 20,000 feet above sea level may develop. Minor eruptions and associated ash clouds of 15,000 feet occurred December 25 and 29, 2011. The most significant recent eruption took place in 2001, sending ash clouds as high as 39,000 feet. Hundreds of commercial flights and approximately 90 percent of air freight from Asia to Europe and North America that overfly Alaska could be impacted by an explosive, ash-producing event.

Tropical Weather Outlook

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

Major Disaster Declaration FEMA-4052-DR-Alabama
Signed February 1, 2012, for the State of Alabama for Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-line Winds, and Flooding that occurred January 22-23, 2012. Individual Assistance is designated for Chilton and Jefferson Counties, and all counties in the State of Alabama are eligible to apply for assistance under the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program.

Major Disaster Declaration FEMA-4053-DR-Utah
Signed February 1, 2012, for the State of Utah for a Severe Storm that occurred November 30 to December 1, 2011. Public Assistance is designated for Davis County, and all counties in the State of Utah are eligible to apply for assistance under the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program.

Amendment # 5 to Major Disaster Declaration FEMA-4042-DR-Virginia
Effective February 1, 2012, the amendment adds Albemarle and King George Counties for Individual Assistance.

Amendment #13 to Major Disaster Declaration FEMA-4029-DR-Texas
Effective February 1, 2012, the amendment adds Bosque County for Public Assistance, including direct Federal assistance; Caldwell, Fayette and Grimes counties for emergency protective measures [Category B], including directed federal assistance (already designated for Individual Assistance); and 26 counties for emergency protective measures [Category B], including direct federal assistance.

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED)

Significant National Weather:

 West:
A Pacific storm system is forecast to bring winter weather to the Rockies and Great Plains beginning later today and extending through the week. Tonight moderate amounts of snow, as much as 6-12 inches, will impact portions of Utah, western Wyoming and the central Colorado mountains. Strong winds east of Denver, over the Plains, could cause significant blowing and drifting snow with blizzard conditions possible on Friday.

Midwest:
Warm temperatures are forecast to continue for the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys, extending into the North Central U.S. into Saturday. Some rain and thunderstorms will move into portions of Texas, Oklahoma and eastern Kansas late in the afternoon; heavier rain and a few thunderstorms will develop tonight. A strong storm developing over the Plains will bring the threat of locally heavy snowfall across northwestern Kansas and Nebraska tonight through early Saturday. Along with the snow some heavy rain and even a few severe thunderstorms will threaten portions of Kansas tonight and Friday.

South:
A few isolated showers and storms are possible along the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to Texas. Precipitation will likely exit the coast of North Carolina early in the day while the remainder of the Southeast is expected to remain dry. February temperatures are expected to remain mild across the Southern Plains. Red Flag warnings remain in effect across portions of southern New Mexico and south west Texas.

Northeast:
Rain showers will bring slight moisture to the Mid Atlantic states as a storm slowly moves off the coast; mostly cloudy and drier weather will prevail by the afternoon. Extremely warm conditions will come to an end across the Northeast as cooler air begins to arrive from Canada. Temperatures will reach into the teens and 20s across northern New England and northern New York; milder temperatures will extend from southern New England through the Mid-Atlantic States. 

Space Weather:

No space weather storms were observed over the past 24 hours. No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours. 

Heightened Activity at Cleveland Volcano, Alaska

 Renewed eruptive activity of the Cleveland Volcano has been observed by satellite, prompting the Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) to elevate the Aviation Color Code from Yellow to Orange (Alert Level: Watch). Orange is the second highest warning level in the four-color alert system, and indicates that the Cleveland Volcano is exhibiting ?heightened or escalating unrest with increased potential of eruption?. The Cleveland Volcano is located along the east central Aleutians, about 940 miles southwest of Anchorage, Alaska.

As of Monday, January 30, a new lava dome approximately 130 feet in diameter was observed in the summit crater. No ash emissions or explosive activity have been observed; however, it is possible for intermittent, sudden explosions of blocks and ash to occur at any time, and ash clouds exceeding 20,000 feet above sea level may develop. Minor eruptions and associated ash clouds of 15,000 feet occurred December 25 and 29, 2011. The most significant recent eruption took place in 2001, sending ash clouds as high as 39,000 feet. Hundreds of commercial flights and approximately 90 percent of air freight from Asia to Europe and North America that overfly Alaska could be impacted by an explosive, ash-producing event.

Tropical Weather Outlook

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

Major Disaster Declaration FEMA-4052-DR-Alabama
Signed February 1, 2012, for the State of Alabama for Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-line Winds, and Flooding that occurred January 22-23, 2012. Individual Assistance is designated for Chilton and Jefferson Counties, and all counties in the State of Alabama are eligible to apply for assistance under the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program.

Major Disaster Declaration FEMA-4053-DR-Utah`
Signed February 1, 2012, for the State of Utah for a Severe Storm that occurred November 30 to December 1, 2011. Public Assistance is designated for Davis County, and all counties in the State of Utah are eligible to apply for assistance under the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program.

Amendment # 5 to Major Disaster Declaration FEMA-4042-DR-Virginia
Effective February 1, 2012, the amendment adds Albemarle and King George Counties for Individual Assistance.

Amendment #13 to Major Disaster Declaration FEMA-4029-DR-Texas
Effective February 1, 2012, the amendment adds Bosque County for Public Assistance, including direct Federal assistance; Caldwell, Fayette and Grimes counties for emergency protective measures [Category B], including directed federal assistance (already designated for Individual Assistance); and 26 counties for emergency protective measures [Category B], including direct federal assistance. 

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED)

Significant National Weather:

West:
Rain and high elevation snow is expected across the Pacific Northwest and northern California.  The system is expected to move to the east-southeast, reaching the Northern and Central Rockies by Thursday.

Midwest:
Skies will be mostly sunny across the Plains, with temperatures 15-20 degrees above average in most areas.  A few light rain showers are possible across portions of Kentucky and Ohio.  Late Thursday, snow will begin to increase across the Plains, from South Dakota to Kansas.

South:
Thunderstorms with locally heavy rain are possible today from the central Gulf coast northeastward to the southern Appalachians.  Rain is expected to be light to moderate over most areas, with some heavy rain possible near the Appalachians.  A threat for severe weather will exist across portions of the Southern Plains by late Thursday, as the system impacting the Rockies pushes east and begins to encounter increasing amounts of Gulf moisture.

Northeast:
Wintry precipitation is expected to continue today over northern New England.  Sleet and freezing rain will be likely over central New England, and northern Maine will see mostly snow.

Space Weather:

Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Solar radiation storms reaching the S1 level occurred. No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.

Tropical Weather Outlook

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED)

Significant National Weather:

West:  
A complex series of disturbances will produce rain and snow across the Pacific Northwest tonight. Precipitation will continue overnight with total accumulations of 6-11 inches of snow possible by Wednesday morning.

Midwest:
A change in temperature, from cold to mild, will overspread the region today as a strong warm front spreads eastward from the Northern Plains. Tonight, light rain will develop along the front from the Mid Mississippi Valley into the Midwest. Runoff from the Jan. 19 snowstorm in Montana has produced elevated river levels along the Missouri River in North Dakota. The River is nearing Minor Flood Stage. Impacts are expected to be primarily confined to agricultural areas.

South:
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will spread eastward into the Central Gulf Coast this afternoon. This system could produce isolated very heavy rain from southern Louisiana to the Panhandle of Florida.

Northeast:
A mix of rain, snow and freezing rain will move into New England today, and depart by Wednesday evening. Widespread showers and high elevation snow is expected in portions of Maine. Accumulations of 4-8 inches of snow are possible by Wednesday morning.  (NOAA, National Weather Service and media sources) 

Space Weather:

Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Solar radiation storms reaching the S1 level occurred. Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be minor. Solar radiation storms reaching the S1 levels are expected.  (SWPC) 

Tropical Weather Outlook

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

At 6:39 p.m. EST Jan. 30, 2012, a magnitude 3.2 earthquake occurred 6 miles east of Mineral, Va., at a depth of 1.9 miles. The quake is considered an aftershock of the M5.8 that occurred August 2011 near the same location. No damages or injuries were reported. No requests for assistance have been received or are expected. The North Anna Nuclear Plant declared an Unusual Event (UE) due to the earthquake.  An inspection of the plant was completed and the UE was closed at 12:35 a.m. EST this morning. No damages were reported at the plant and both units are running at 100% power.  (USGS) 

Preliminary Damage Assessments

Joint Preliminary Damage Assessments are currently underway in Alabama. (FEMA HQ) 

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED)

Significant National Weather:

West:
The rain and high elevation snow over the Intermountain West and Northern Rockies will begin to taper off this morning, but another storm system will move into the region on Tuesday. Light rain and snow will continue in the Olympics and Northern Cascades through Tuesday.

Midwest:
Warm temperatures are expected to continue today across the Northern and Central Plains with temperatures 15 to 25 degrees above average. Scattered snow showers over the Upper Midwest will move eastward into New England by Tuesday. Due to high temperatures, gusty winds and low humidity, fire weather conditions are possible Monday afternoon for southeastern Kansas and parts of southwestern and central Missouri.

South:
Light rain lingering in the southern tip of Florida will begin to subside this evening. High pressure over parts of the Gulf Coast will begin to move east allowing rain to spread into Texas tonight. Long durations of low relative humidity and strong winds will continue to increase the risk of fire across portions of Alabama, Georgia and Florida; Red Flag Warnings remain in effect in these areas through this evening.

Northeast:
The storm system moving eastward out of the Midwest will continue to produce light snow across portions of the region this morning. Light accumulations are possible.

Space Weather:

Space weather for the past 24 hours has been moderate with solar radiation storms reaching the S2 level occurring.  Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be minor; solar radiation storms reaching the S1 level are expected.  (SWPC) 

USGS Monitors Earth?s Magnetic Field to Prepare Citizens for Magnetic Storms

On January 19, 2012, scientists saw a solar flare, along with a concentrated blast of solar-wind plasma and magnetic field lines known as a coronal mass ejection, burst from the Sun’s surface. When these solar winds met Earth’s magnetic field, the interaction created a large magnetic storm which peaked on January 24th, 2012, just as another storm began. According to the US Geological Survey (USGS), these storms indicate an up-tick in solar activity—and potentially an increase in the amount of magnetic storms on Earth—coming with the Earth’s ascent into the next solar maximum. The “solar maximum” is the period of greatest activity in the solar cycle of the Sun, which is predicted to occur sometime in 2013.

Magnetic storms are a space weather phenomenon responsible for the lights of the aurora borealis and, sometimes, for disruptions in technology and infrastructure. Large magnetic storms, for example, can interrupt radio communication, interfere with global-positioning systems, disrupt oil and gas well drilling, damage satellites and affect their operations, and even cause electrical blackouts by inducing voltage surges in electric power grids.

The USGS Geomagnetism Program, a partner in the multi-agency National Space Weather Program, maintains 14 observatories around the United States and its territories and provides ground-based measurements of changes in the magnetic field to various governmental, academic, and private institutions in order to help us understand how magnetic storms may impact the United States. In addition to providing data to its customers, the USGS produces models of the Earth’s magnetic field that are used in a host of applications, including GPS receivers, military and civilian navigational systems, and in research for studies of the effects of geomagnetic storms on the ionosphere (a shell of electrons and electrically charged atoms and molecules surrounding Earth), atmosphere, and near-space environment. Additional information on the USGS Geomagnetism Program and the Solar Cycle Prediction may be found at the following websites: geomag.usgs.gov/about.php, http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml.

Increasing U.S. Earthquake Preparedness

The Great Central U.S. Shakeout earthquake drill will be held on February, 7, 2012 to commemorate the bicentennial of the 1812 New Madrid Earthquake. More than 1.7 million people across nine states are expected to participate this year. Shakeout drills, modeled after California’s program for public earthquake preparedness, are designed to educate the public about how to how to prepare for, and protect themselves during a large earthquake. The shakeout teaches participants the “Drop, Cover and Hold On” model designed to save lives during actual events, and allows the opportunity for coordination between local and state entities. For more information visit: http://www.shakeout.org/centralus/. Japan will hold its first ShakeOut event, centered in Tokyo, on March 11, 2012, the anniversary of the Tohoku earthquake and tsunami. Additional ShakeOut drills in California, Nevada, Oregon, Idaho, British Columbia, and Guam, will be held on October 18, 2012.

Tropical Weather Outlook

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

A magnitude 6.3 earthquake occurred at 12:11 a.m. EST on January 30, 2012 near the coast of central Peru. The quake occurred approximately 9 miles southeast of Ica, Peru and 173 miles south-southeast of Lima, Peru at a depth of 24.4 miles. There have been no reports of injury or damage and no tsunami was generated. There were no requests for FEMA assistance. 

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)